Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi died on Sunday in a helicopter accident in a remote area of northwestern Iran.
Accompanying him were Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian, the Supreme Leader’s representative in Tabriz, and the governor-general of Eastern Azerbaijan province, where the crash occurred.
Raisi is the second Iranian president to die in office since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. The first was Mohammad Ali Rajaei, who was assassinated by the Mujahedeen-e-Khalq Organization, a militant group that splintered from the revolution, in 1981. However, these two deaths occurred under very different circumstances.
Under Iran’s system, the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has the final say on all crucial matters. Khamenei, now 85, had Raisi, 63, as a main contender for succession. Raisi’s death opens the field to other potential candidates amid significant challenges like economic struggles, domestic unrest, and rising tensions with Israel.
For years, Mojtaba Khamenei, Khamenei’s second son and close aide, has been seen as a leading candidate to succeed him. Another contender is Alireza Arafi, a prominent member of the Assembly of Experts, which formally selects the Supreme Leader.
Raisi’s father-in-law, Ahmad Alam-ol-Hoda, is another influential figure. Alam-ol-Hoda is powerful in Mashhad and serves as the Supreme Leader’s representative in Khorasan Razavi province. Raisi’s widow, Jamileh Alam-ol-Hoda, had been advocating for the title of “First Lady,” which would have been possible if her husband became Supreme Leader. She might now settle for “First Daughter.”
Ahmad Khatami, a hardliner and member of the Assembly of Experts’ presidium, is also a significant figure. He is on the EU’s sanctions list for inciting violence against protesters following the 2022 death of Mahsa Amini in police custody. Khatami is also a member of the Guardian Council, which vets candidates for president and other offices. According to Iran’s Constitution, a new presidential election must be held within 50 days.
Raisi’s death also affects the Assembly of Experts, which was to convene this week to choose its new leader. Raisi was the frontrunner for this role, which would have given him influence over selecting Khamenei’s successor. Now, there will need to be an election to replace Raisi in South Khorasan province.
Iran must now select a new president amid historically low voter turnout. Vice President Mohammad Mokhber Dezfouli will temporarily take charge of the Executive branch under Article 131 of Iran’s Constitution.
A council comprising the Parliament Speaker, the Judiciary Chief, and the First Vice President must organize a new presidential election within 50 days.
Mokhber, who has managed significant financial institutions, is likely to run for president, as is Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, the current Parliament Speaker. Qalibaf, a former mayor of Tehran and head of the IRGC Air Force, has run for president three times unsuccessfully and is seen as a relative moderate, though his chances now are uncertain.
Throughout Khamenei’s leadership, Iran’s political spectrum has narrowed. The upcoming elections are likely to be uncompetitive, with public morale at an all-time low. The regime may try to introduce some reformist figures to attract disillusioned voters. One possibility is Es’haq Jahangiri, vice president under Hassan Rouhani.
Jahangiri has distanced himself from Rouhani, claiming to have been stripped of power during Rouhani’s second term (2017-2021), which might help him pass the Guardian Council’s vetting. However, Jahangiri lacks strong popular support.
With limited time before elections, the council may opt for familiar names already vetted. Despite Raisi’s death, the hardline doctrine in domestic and foreign policy is expected to continue.
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